Area Forecast Discussion (NWS BGM)

FXUS61 KBGM 011017
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
617 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Isolated rain showers were added to the forecast for this afternoon
and evening. Tonight`s temperatures were lowered below guidance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An upper level blocking pattern will be in control for most of
the week. Conditions will be mild and mostly dry.

2) A change in the pattern midweek will lead to a warming trend
through late this week. A frontal system will bring a chance for
showers this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

With an upper level Omega blocking pattern present over the country,
the forecast will be fairly consistent for the next couple of days.
While an upper trough will extend over the Northeast, surface high
pressure will help conditions mostly dry through at least midweek.
A weak shortwave and daytime heating will likely kick off
isolated showers this afternoon and evening. With the surface
high present, moisture will be limited, so anything that can
develop will be light. Given that NBM guidance did not have any
PoPs for this time period, a blend of NAMNest, GFS, and manual
edits were used to include areas of slight chance PoPs given the
isolated coverage expected. Models show weak instability and
shear, but not enough to have the confidence to include thunder
in the forecast. Patchy fog will also be possible tonight,
mainly within the Catskills and river valleys. Guidance
continue to favor dry conditions for Tuesday.

Temperatures under this pattern will max out in the 60s and 70s
and drop into the 40s and 50s at night. With northerly flow,
clear skies, and light winds all expected, temperatures were
lowered below NBM guidance for tonight.

Key Message 2...

The Omega block will begin to lose its shape midweek as the ridge in
the Central US drifts eastward and the trough over the eastern US
fills as it moves out of the region. This will result in a warming
trend through the end of the week thanks to warm air advection under
west to southwesterly flow. High temperatures will climb into the
80s for most by Thursday. With surface high pressure still an
influence, conditions will be mostly dry. There is a frontal system
that approaches the region late in the week but it begins to slow
down as it does. Some pop up showers ahead of the front will be
possible, though the better chance for rain will be when the front
finally pushes through. There remains uncertainty as guidance
continue to differ on the timing, though there will be potential for
rain at some point over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --VFR conditions are expected everywhere but ELM where some fog is
possible tonight with clear skies and calm winds with better
moisture. There will be some showers that develop this
afternoon but given how isolated they will be, they were not
added to this TAF period. If one of these showers do impact a
terminal, brief MVFR conditions are possible.

Outlook:

Monday night through Friday...Mainly VFR, but isolated showers
each afternoon may result in brief restrictions.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...AJG

                
            
                                
    
        
    
    
        
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